So today its time for the FED rate hike and the FOMC press conference. Odds for a hike are of course almost 100% , so careful as with that many analysts agreeing increase the odds for the opposite to happen. However I do expect we will see a hike today, but whether good old Yellen will be hawkish at the press conference is another matter. By all means then the US economy has been going downhill this year, so not much to be cheerful about. But whatever happens today, then any positive effect on the USD will only be short lived, figures are deteriorating and other markets are getting stronger as we go along.
Aussie and Kiwi took an upsurge today due to the CHinese industrial production figures together with the retails came out better than expected. We are seeing Gold and oil weaker, so any strenghtening of those, could push us further upwards. Also we have seen solid figures from Euroland and not even Draghi´s tears of despair can keep the Euro down.
So I do expect that any strenghtening of the USD this year will be short term, unless we see a drastic turn in the economy, also another rate hike this year seems like something we supposed could happen a while ago but not any longer. So estimates for year end for the EURUSD I see as being around 1.15-1.16 , but time will tell, just putting all together and adding it up it makes much more sense.
With the Drawdown being around 1% on the Greenzone account, there is still a window open for withdrawals should anyone wish to take out a bit of cash for the holidays. If not then the ship will just keep heading for warm weather and steer clear of bad weather.
Wish you all a wonderful summer and take good care